You may have heard of the Butterfly Effect. What do butterflies have to do with the future of the social change movements for cross-disability and psychiatric survivor rights? Hold on.

The Butterfly Effect was first named by Edward Lorenz in the early 1960's.

Studying computer simulations of the weather, Dr. Lorenz found that even the tiniest variation of initial conditions could lead to wildly varying results over a period of time. He put it poetically by hypothesizing that the beating of a butterfly's wing in Brazil could eventually change when and where a tornado hit Texas.

It's nice to see science admit the obvious: it's impossible to exactly predict what's going to happen in the long run.

In the short run, I feel I can make a prediction that is pretty certain, though. The cross-disability movement will increasingly include and embrace one of the most numerous of all disabilities, people diagnosed with mental disabilities. People like me.

I was diagnosed schizophrenic and locked up in a psychiatric facility five times back in the 1970's. I experienced being held down on a bare mattress in solitary confinement for forced psychiatric drug injections. That was my recruiting room to work on human rights and alternatives in the mental health system. Today I direct MindFreedom, which unites 100 grassroots groups working for empowerment and self-determination in the mental health system. Most of our members and leaders are psychiatric survivors.

Some people in the cross-disability movement are still unaware that there's been a psychiatric survivor movement since about 1970 in the USA.

We know that for the cross-disability movement to include our constituency, it will involve one heck of a lot of that great core value, "diversity."

Consider that in 1973, after some strong grassroots activism, the American Psychiatric Association officially voted out homosexuality from their "label bible," also known as the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual. So let's talk for a moment about the year before, 1972. In 1972, was being gay or lesbian really a "mental disability"? If a cross-disability activist had spoken to a group of gays or lesbians in 1972, what would happen if the speaker chided the crowd to be proud of being in the disability movement?

So when reaching out to the community of people diagnosed with mental disabilities, it's especially important to recognize the wide range of divergent views, because psychiatry can take irrationality to whole new heights.

Many individuals with a mental disability diagnosis fully accept a traditional medical model approach to their mental and emotional problems. However, many other people firmly reject the traditional medical model, and utilize a wide variety of alternatives. Many people absolutely reject any diagnosis. And as we've seen, the official gate keepers are often a few hundred unelected rich white males who are voting -- literally voting -- about which of us is "disabled."

That's quite a turbulent set of circumstances in which to organize.

In the last few years, there has been a flurry of bridge building over this turbulence and between the psychiatric survivors' social change movement and the general cross-disability movement. Heroes like the late Justin Dart and Rae Unzicker were particularly powerful engineers of the early bridges.

Today, our coalition includes groups like American Association of People with Disabilities and ADA Watch. It is common to see psychiatric survivors proudly speaking out at, say, a conference on independent living. At gatherings that attempt to model true cross-disability, we often see representatives from the community of people who have been labeled as developmentally disabled.

So my short term prediction is that, more and more, the cross-disability movement will open the doors to people diagnosed with mental disabilities. We will be considered sisters and brothers by some, eccentric cousins by others, and the aunt in the attic by the rest, but we will be in the family of cross-disability movements.

I predict that more and more when we ask an independent living center, "So tell me about your psychiatric survivor programs?" we'll actually get an answer longer than the name of someone on the staff with a psychiatric diagnosis.

An example of the future of this cross-disability work is someone like Krista Erickson, who is a blind psychiatric survivor disability activist at a Chicago area independent living center. This past summer Krista joined other psychiatric survivors for a hunger strike. It challenged the way medicalization dominates the mental health system, winning national publicity. Krista moderates an e-mail list about the intersection between cross-disability activism and psychiatric survivor activism. (You can e-mail Krista at krista@intenex.net.)

What about the long run, when the flap of a butterfly may end up accelerating or delaying the arrival of that tornado? While it's impossible to say, complexity theory -- which brought us the butterfly effect in the first place -- is also saying that it's important for those of us seeking empowerment in organizations to follow our core principles. We can't predict which butterfly's flap will lead to a storm, but some day -- if we all pull together in the right direction -- that storm may come unexpectedly, and it will be a doozy.

So I'll end by talking about what changes I seek for the long run for the cross-disability movement. My hope is that the cross disability movement will recognize its role as one of the leading organized sectors of the "Poor People's Movement." You remember the Poor People's Movement? The phrase used to be a lot more common decades ago. Martin Luther King, Jr., for example, was shot shortly before he was to lead an enormous poor people's march.

I say let's bring back the Poor People's Movement, globally.

A challenge of organizing poor people is that, well, our people need money, and lots of it. And that means, of course, that the vast majority of activity in poor people's movements tends to be government funded. I sometimes imagine the rolodex of a government-funded activist group has just one member: the granting agency.

We need to go back to our roots. Social change movements led by poor people, African Americans, women, and peace activists helped create the climate which birthed the current cross-disability movement decades ago. As important as government funding is, as important as it is to have trade associations dedicated to lobbying the government for bigger budgets for services, the center of gravity of social change needs to be with other social change movements.

I'd like to see the cross-disability movement become a leader in the cross oppression movement, internationally. I'd like to see the cross disability movement more and more connect with other poor people's movements all over the world, especially in developing countries.

Today, in nearly every country there are disability rights organizations with offices, leaders, networks. How many other sectors of the poor people's movement can say that?

With this presence comes a responsibility to help lead the poor people's movement toward Justin Dart's dream of a nonviolent revolution of empowerment and self-determination for all.

In his many speeches supporting psychiatric survivors, Justin Dart, Jr.,considered the father of the Americans with Disabilities Act, endorsed the importance of freedom in the mental health system as a core value of the entire cross-disability movement. For example, he said, "Colleagues, our movement, democracy itself stands at a historic crossroads. We have the knowledge, money, productivity, and technology to create a life of profound quality for all [people living in the] 21st century..... I propose that we of the disability communities unite with all who love justice to lead a revolution of empowerment... Empowerment means choices -- individual choices about where we live, where we work, choices about health care. We have a right to complete quality health care of our own choosing. NO FORCED TREATMENT EVER."

In the field of psychiatric survivor organizing, we have gained a commitment from the World Health Organization to help build the organized voice of our constituency in developing countries. The international disability community could play a crucial role in assisting in this project. Already we are all working together in the United Nations on what we all hope is a strong convention on disability and human rights.

So, everyone, keep flapping those butterfly wings, and aim toward our core principles of human rights, freedom, choice, equality, truth, empowerment and self-determination.

David Oaks directs MindFreedom Support Coalition International, which unites 100 grassroots groups in 16 countries working for human rights and alternatives in the mental health system. Their office is in Eugene, Oregon, USA. For more information see www.MindFreedom.org or e-mail to oaks@mindfreedom.org.